No. On the evidence available this opening weekend, *Ebenezer* is not tracking anywhere near the scale of Johnny Depp's previous box office resurrections, and its economics make a comeback story mathematically hard to tell.
Paramount's Ti West–directed reimagining of Dickens's *A Christmas Carol*, with Depp as Scrooge, opened in US theaters on November 13, 2026 and is projected at roughly $20 million domestic and $20 million overseas in its first weekend — against a $38 million production budget and about $50 million in marketing. That gap matters because Depp's definitive comeback, *Alice in Wonderland*, did not squeak past break-even; it cleared a billion dollars worldwide. Comparing the two is less a close call than a difference in category, and the more useful comparison for *Ebenezer* is the run of films that followed *Alice* rather than *Alice* itself.
Table of Contents
- What the opening numbers actually say
- How *Alice in Wonderland* set an unreachable bar
- The pattern after the comeback
- Why Paramount structured the deal this way
- What the reviews add
- What to watch before calling it
- Frequently Asked Questions
What the opening numbers actually say
The budget is where the picture turns. Paramount spent $38 million to produce the film and roughly $50 million to market it, which Variety notes leaves a $20 million opening well short of break-even in weekend one. Studios generally keep around half of domestic ticket revenue and less overseas, so an $88 million combined spend needs a multiple of that in gross receipts before the film is in profit.
Forecasts are not unanimous. Boxoffice Pro's weekend preview puts the range between the studio's $20 million tracking figure and $27 million from Box Office Theory. Even the top of that range does not change the arithmetic in a single weekend.
- Ebenezer* took $1.5 million from Thursday previews across more than 3,500 North American theaters, ahead of projections of about $20 million domestically and the same overseas, according to Variety's box office preview coverage. For a wide release at that theater count, a preview figure of $1.5 million signals solid interest from a committed audience rather than a cultural event.
How *Alice in Wonderland* set an unreachable bar
The comeback template people have in mind is specific. *Alice in Wonderland* opened March 5, 2010 and finished at $1,025,467,110 worldwide — $334,191,110 domestic and $691,276,000 international, per Box Office Mojo's title page. Three things drove that number and none of them are present here. It was a Tim Burton–Disney fantasy tentpole with a global family audience, it rode the post-*Avatar* 3D premium pricing wave, and it placed Depp in a visually iconic supporting role rather than asking him to carry a drama.
*Ebenezer* is a mid-budget adult literary adaptation released into the Christmas corridor. The international split is the clearest tell. *Alice* earned more than twice as much overseas as domestically. *Ebenezer* is tracking at roughly parity — about $20 million each side — which caps the upside that made the earlier film's total possible.
The pattern after the comeback
The more instructive history is what happened next. *Transcendence* (2014) took about $103 million worldwide against a reported $100 million budget, and *Mortdecai* (2015) opened to roughly $4 million for ninth place and finished near $47 million against a $60 million budget, as documented in the film's production and reception record. Critically, that slide began before the events most people associate with Depp's career trouble.
Writing in January 2015, Forbes's Scott Mendelson called *Mortdecai* Depp's fifth consecutive underperforming film as a leading man since *Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides* — establishing that his star-driven openings had already stopped converting in 2015, seven years before the 2022 Heard trial. That reframes the question *Ebenezer* is being asked to answer. The film is not testing whether audiences have forgiven a public controversy; it is testing whether Depp's name sells a non-franchise ticket at all, which is a thing the record suggests stopped being true more than a decade ago.
Why Paramount structured the deal this way
Depp was paid $5 million for *Ebenezer*, a fraction of his prior studio salaries, with bonuses tied to box office performance, according to Variety's reporting on the deal. That is a de-risking structure, and it tells you what the studio believed going in. A $38 million production budget on a star-led holiday title from a major studio is modest.
Paired with a performance-contingent salary, it describes a bet sized so that a disappointing weekend is absorbable rather than ruinous — the opposite of the exposure Disney carried on *Alice*. This is worth reading plainly: the deal structure is itself a forecast. Paramount priced the film for the downside case, which makes the $20 million tracking number closer to the plan than to a failure of it.
What the reviews add
Critics are split rather than hostile. The film sits near 50–53% on Rotten Tomatoes from 83 reviews with a 5.4/10 average, and 46/100 on Metacritic from 32 critics. IndieWire's David Ehrlich gave it a C− and called Depp "insufferable." A middling score matters more than usual for a Christmas release.
Holiday titles typically earn their money through long December legs rather than a single weekend, and legs depend on word of mouth. A film landing at the halfway mark with critics is unlikely to generate the repeat-recommendation effect that turns a soft opening into a profitable run. Variety also frames the release as Depp's first major Hollywood film in eight years, and does not expect it to ignite the box office the way *Michael* did. That is the ceiling the trade press has set.
What to watch before calling it
Every number available today is previews and tracking — not an actual weekend result. If you want to judge this yourself rather than wait for a headline, here is what to check and when: Until the Sunday actuals land, the honest position is that *Ebenezer* is tracking like a modestly budgeted holiday release with split reviews and a de-risked star deal — which is a different film, and a different bet, from the one that made $1.02 billion in 2010.
- **The actual three-day domestic total**, reported Sunday. Above $27 million beats every published forecast; below $20 million undershoots the studio's own tracking.
- **The weekend-two drop.** A hold under 40% suggests word of mouth is working despite the reviews; above 55% means the audience that wanted to see it already did.
- **The December multiplier.** Holiday films often finish at three to four times their opening. On a $20 million start, even a strong 4x multiplier lands near $80 million domestic — against $88 million in combined production and marketing spend.
- **The overseas split.** *Alice* made two-thirds of its money internationally. If *Ebenezer*'s foreign gross stays level with domestic, the billion-dollar comparison is closed permanently.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is *Ebenezer* a flop?
Too early to say. It has not reported an actual weekend result yet — only $1.5 million in Thursday previews and forecasts between $20 million and $27 million. What is established is that a $20 million opening falls well short of break-even against $38 million production and roughly $50 million marketing costs.
Why compare it to *Alice in Wonderland* instead of a recent Depp film?
Because *Alice* is the comeback the title invokes. It grossed $1,025,467,110 worldwide after a March 2010 release and is the only Depp film that genuinely reset his commercial standing.
Did the 2022 trial cause Depp's box office decline?
The decline predates it. Forbes identified *Mortdecai* in January 2015 as his fifth straight underperformer as a leading man since *On Stranger Tides*.
How much is Depp making from this film?
$5 million up front, with bonuses tied to box office performance — far below his prior studio salaries.