Some fans believe that Avatar 3, officially titled Avatar: Fire and Ash, may not replicate the success of Avatar 2 (The Way of Water) for several reasons. First, the opening weekend box office projections for Avatar 3 are strong but notably lower than those of Avatar 2. Estimates suggest Avatar 3 will open domestically between $100 million and $165 million, with many forecasts centering around $110 million to $135 million. In contrast, Avatar 2 opened to about $134 million domestically, which was already a slight underperformance compared to expectations set by the original Avatar’s record-breaking run[1][2][3].
One key factor is the difference in anticipation levels. Avatar 2 came after a 13-year wait following the original 2009 film, which built massive pent-up demand. Avatar 3, however, arrives only three years after Avatar 2, reducing the novelty and excitement among audiences. This shorter gap means the sequel does not benefit from the same level of eager anticipation that drove Avatar 2’s strong opening and sustained box office performance[3][4].
Competition is another concern. Avatar 3 faces a more crowded release window with several other films vying for audience attention, unlike Avatar 2, which had a relatively clear field during its mid-December release. This increased competition could dilute Avatar 3’s box office draw, especially since it is a long film (over three hours), which limits the number of daily showings and may affect casual viewers’ willingness to commit[3].
Additionally, early ticket sales and pre-sales data indicate that Avatar 3’s initial demand is lower than Avatar 2’s at a similar point before release. For example, in India, Avatar 3’s advance ticket sales are significantly behind those of Avatar 2, reflecting less initial excitement. Globally, pre-sales trends also show a decline compared to the previous sequel, suggesting that the film might not generate the same level of immediate buzz[4].
Finally, the nature of Avatar films as “appointment viewing” experiences—where audiences seek premium formats like 3D and IMAX—means that the franchise relies heavily on spectacle and novelty. With the second film having already delivered groundbreaking visuals and technology, some fans worry that Avatar 3 may struggle to offer a fresh enough experience to justify the same level of enthusiasm and box office dominance[2].
Sources
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/
https://www.superherohype.com/movies/641014-avatar-3-box-office-tracking-hints-at-big-but-not-massive-opening
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://www.pinkvilla.com/entertainment/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-james-cameron-film-advances-open-strongly-in-india-1399072
