Some fans believe that Avatar 3, titled Avatar: Fire and Ash, may not be able to repeat the success of Avatar 2 (The Way of Water) for several reasons. One key factor is the shorter gap between the two films. Avatar 2 came out 16 years after the original, building massive anticipation, while Avatar 3 is arriving only three years after Avatar 2, which may reduce excitement and novelty among audiences. Additionally, Avatar 3 faces more competition at the box office, including animated and other genre films releasing around the same time, unlike Avatar 2, which had less competition partly due to COVID-related delays in other movie releases[2].
Box office forecasts also suggest a more modest opening for Avatar 3 compared to Avatar 2. Predictions estimate Avatar 3’s opening weekend domestic gross to be between $108 million and $165 million, which is lower or roughly in line with Avatar 2’s $134 million opening but not exceeding it. This indicates tempered expectations from analysts and fans alike[1][2]. The longer runtime of nearly 3 hours and 20 minutes might also affect audience turnout, as longer films can limit the number of daily screenings and test viewer patience[2].
Moreover, Avatar 2 benefited from a long buildup of anticipation and the novelty of returning to the Pandora universe after many years. Avatar 3, while continuing the story, may struggle to capture the same level of fresh interest. Some fans feel the story risks becoming repetitive or less impactful, which could affect word-of-mouth and repeat viewings.
In summary, the combination of a shorter gap between sequels, increased competition, slightly lower box office projections, and concerns about maintaining audience interest contribute to why some fans doubt Avatar 3 will match the success of Avatar 2.
Sources
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/
