Avatar 3, known as Avatar: Fire and Ash, is drawing less buzz from audiences outside North America compared to its predecessors mainly due to shorter gaps between releases, tougher competition, and local delays like in Hong Kong. James Cameron’s sequel opened strong in the US with projections of $110 million to $130 million for its first weekend starting December 19, beating the original Avatar’s $77 million debut in 2009 but falling short of Avatar: The Way of Water’s $134 million in 2022https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/. That first film built hype over years and hit $2.9 billion worldwide, while the second made $2.3 billion after a 13-year waithttps://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/https://screenrant.com/2025-box-office-challenge-avatar-fire-and-ash/.
Overseas markets feel different this time. The three-year gap to Fire and Ash means less time for fresh excitement to build, unlike the long buildup for Way of Waterhttps://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/. Now, rivals crowd the holiday season, including an animated David movie, The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob release, splitting attention that Way of Water enjoyed almost alone, even if COVID played a role back thenhttps://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/. In places like Hong Kong, the release got pushed back after a fire tragedy, letting local hit Another World dominate screens insteadhttps://www.screendaily.com/news/another-world-rules-hong-kong-box-office-as-avatar-3-release-pushed-after-fire-tragedy/5211935.article.
Broader trends hurt too. 2025 saw just two films top $1 billion globally, matching 2023 and worse than pre-pandemic years, pointing to softer cinema habits overallhttps://screenrant.com/2025-box-office-challenge-avatar-fire-and-ash/. Fire and Ash tests if the franchise can still pull crowds abroad amid this dip, or if lower turnout reflects bigger shifts away from theaters. Forecasts see its US opening around $108 million, banking on legs like the others for a solid run, but overseas engagement lags without the same sparkhttps://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/.
Sources
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://screenrant.com/2025-box-office-challenge-avatar-fire-and-ash/
https://www.screendaily.com/news/another-world-rules-hong-kong-box-office-as-avatar-3-release-pushed-after-fire-tragedy/5211935.article
