Many people say Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third movie in James Camerons Pandora series, did not meet their expectations. Fans and box office watchers point to weaker early ticket sales and tough comparisons to the first two films as big reasons why.
The movie hit theaters on December 19, just before the holidays. Early buzz from industry reports set its opening weekend in North America between 110 million and 130 million dollars for the three-day frame. That sounds big at first, but it falls short of what came before. The original Avatar from 2009 started with 77 million dollars from 3,452 theaters. It had a strong per-screen average of 22,313 dollars and grew into a massive hit, pulling in 2.9 billion dollars worldwide after re-releases. For more on those early numbers, check out this breakdown from Koimoi at https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/.
Avatar: The Way of Water in 2022 opened even stronger at 134 million dollars. It faced little competition thanks to COVID delays in other releases and built to 2.3 billion dollars globally, with 688 million in the U.S. after its own re-release. Fire and Ash projections look softer by comparison. One prediction pegged it at just 108 million dollars for opening weekend. Experts note the three-year gap since Way of Water left less time to build hype, unlike the 13-year wait for the 2022 sequel. Details on that forecast come from Todd M. Thatchers analysis at https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/.
Competition hurt too. This time, Fire and Ash shared screens with an animated biblical movie called David, a thriller named The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob film. Way of Water had the mid-December slot mostly to itself. The new film runs nearly three hours and 20 minutes, which might turn off some viewers wanting quicker watches during busy holidays.
The budget adds pressure. At close to 400 million dollars, it needs billion-dollar success to break even, just like its predecessors. Avatar movies usually leg out over weeks with steady earnings, not huge opening bursts. Still, lower projections spark talk that the magic feels dimmer. Box office trackers see 2025 needing holiday hits to hit targets, but Fire and Ash faces an uphill climb. Tracking forecasts highlight this at https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/.
Sources
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
