Why Inflation Could Reduce Avatar 3 Audience Attendance
Movie theaters across North America are facing a serious problem. Ticket prices have stayed relatively flat in real terms since 2010, but the overall cost of going to the movies has climbed significantly. This happens because concession prices have risen faster than inflation, making a trip to the cinema feel increasingly expensive to everyday consumers.
A 2025 survey conducted by Bain of more than 5,000 US consumers revealed something interesting: about half of all respondents wish they attended more in-person events like movies. Yet this desire has not translated into actual ticket sales. The reality on the ground tells a different story than what people say they want to do.
The numbers paint a clear picture of cinema’s struggle. In 2024, movie theaters in the United States and Canada sold around 760.5 million tickets. This represents a decline from 2023, when approximately 831 million tickets were sold. More importantly, both of these figures fall far short of the nearly 1.23 billion tickets sold in 2019, before the pandemic disrupted everything. Even with growth from the pandemic lows, domestic cinema attendance remains at just 64 percent of pre-pandemic levels as of November 2025.
Inflation has made the moviegoing experience feel like a luxury rather than an affordable entertainment option. When consumers already perceive cinema as expensive, they become more selective about when and how often they visit theaters. This perception directly impacts attendance numbers, even for highly anticipated releases like Avatar 3.
The box office revenue situation reinforces this trend. North American box office revenue in real terms has fallen over the past two decades, even as ticket prices have remained relatively stable. The increase in concession costs per patron has outpaced inflation, creating a situation where the total cost of a theater visit has grown substantially. For a family of four, a single movie outing can easily exceed one hundred dollars when tickets and snacks are combined.
Younger audiences, particularly teenagers aged 12 to 17, watch movies at theaters more frequently than older demographics. This group watched an average of 2.5 feature films at movie theaters in 2021, compared to just 0.5 films for moviegoers aged 60 and above. However, even this younger demographic is price-sensitive. When inflation makes entertainment options more expensive, families may choose to wait for streaming releases or select fewer theatrical experiences.
The streaming competition has intensified this problem. Consumer spending on video streaming subscriptions surged from 2010 through 2024, offering consumers an alternative entertainment option that feels more affordable on a per-viewing basis. Streaming services provide unlimited access for a monthly fee, whereas theatrical visits require payment for each individual experience.
Theater operators understand the challenge they face. Executives at major cinema chains recognize that they cannot rely on broad-based price increases to boost revenues, given that cinema is already perceived as expensive. Instead, they are exploring strategies like revamped loyalty programs and targeted discounting to encourage repeat visits. However, these approaches must be carefully designed to avoid the failures of earlier movie pass programs that proved unprofitable.
Some theaters have found success with premium features. Facilities that upgraded to recliner seating saw average attendance increase by between 40 and 80 percent during the 2010s. These upgrades create a more luxurious experience that justifies higher prices to consumers. Yet not all theaters have made these investments, and even premium experiences cannot fully offset the impact of inflation on consumer budgets.
Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, industry forecasts suggest modest growth. Analysts predict attendance will grow 4 percent in 2025 and 5 to 7 percent in 2026, supported by a strong slate of film releases planned for the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond. Avatar 3 falls into this category of highly anticipated releases that studios hope will drive attendance.
However, inflation remains a headwind for these projections. When consumers face rising costs across all aspects of their lives, entertainment spending becomes discretionary. A family struggling with grocery bills, rent, and utilities may decide that a theatrical experience is not worth the expense, regardless of how much they want to see a particular film. This economic reality could dampen attendance for Avatar 3 and other major releases, even if the films themselves are critically acclaimed and culturally significant.
The challenge for Avatar 3 is that it must overcome not just streaming competition and changing consumer habits, but also the fundamental economic pressure that inflation places on household budgets. While the film’s visual spectacle and immersive experience offer something that streaming cannot replicate, price-conscious consumers may still choose to wait for a home viewing option rather than pay premium prices at a theater.
Sources
https://www.bain.com/insights/reimagining-cinema-how-movie-theaters-can-fill-seats-again/
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3481664
https://www.statista.com/statistics/187073/tickets-sold-at-the-north-american-box-office-since-1980/
https://cordcuttersnews.com/movie-theaters-see-box-office-numbers-drop-30-compared-to-2019/
