Chains Are Reporting Softer Avatar 3 Attendance
Movie theater chains across North America are seeing fewer advance ticket sales for Avatar: Fire and Ash than expected for a film in James Cameron’s blockbuster franchise. The third Avatar movie, set to open on December 19, has projections for a three-day opening weekend between 110 million and 130 million dollars, which falls short of the 134 million dollars that Avatar: The Way of Water earned in its 2022 debut. For more details on these projections, check out https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/.
One big reason for the softer attendance is the shorter wait time between films. The first Avatar came out in 2009 after 16 years of hype from Cameron’s earlier hits, pulling in 77 million dollars on opening weekend before growing to nearly 3 billion worldwide. The Way of Water arrived three years later in 2022 with massive buildup during the post-COVID recovery, when few other big movies competed. Fire and Ash, however, follows just three years after that second film, so the excitement feels less fresh to some fans. Industry watchers note this gap reduces the pent-up demand that fueled the earlier entries. See this analysis at https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/.
Competition plays a role too. Unlike The Way of Water, which faced little rivalry in mid-December due to pandemic slowdowns, Fire and Ash goes head-to-head with movies like the animated biblical story David, the thriller The Housemaid, and a new SpongeBob film. These alternatives give families and viewers more choices during the holiday season, splitting the audience.
The film’s nearly three-hour-and-20-minute runtime might also turn off some ticket buyers looking for quicker holiday watches. Still, Avatar movies tend to build slowly with strong legs over weeks, not relying on a huge opening blast. One forecast puts the debut at 108 million dollars, banking on holiday holdover success to push totals higher over time.
Chains report these trends through lower per-screen averages in pre-sales and tracking data, signaling caution even for a 400-million-dollar production carrying Oscar-winning expectations.
Sources
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
