Avatar 3, titled Fire and Ash, is set to open on December 19 with a projected first weekend around $95 to $108 million, which falls short of the $134 million debut for Avatar: The Way of Water in 2022. This softer start surprises some fans given the massive hype around James Cameron’s blue alien saga, but several clear factors explain the dip.
First, the time gap between films plays a big role. Way of Water had a 13-year buildup since the original 2009 Avatar, which exploded to $785 million domestic after a modest $77 million opening. Fire and Ash arrives just three years later, so the fresh excitement has cooled off a bit. As one box office analyst notes, forecasts see it lower than Water because that long wait created huge pent-up demand.
Competition is fiercer this time too. Unlike Way of Water, which faced almost no rivals in mid-December partly due to COVID slowdowns, Fire and Ash goes head-to-head with an animated biblical movie called David, a thriller titled The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob film. These alternatives give families and viewers more choices during the holiday rush. Check out this detailed prediction breaking down the clash at https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/.
Tracking data backs the tempered expectations. One forecast pegs the opening at $95 million low-end to $115 million high-end over six weeks of monitoring. Another early checkpoint hovered around $90 million or more pre-release. These numbers suggest steady but not blockbuster-level buzz right now. For the full tracking charts, see https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/ and https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/.
Overseas hiccups add to the caution. In Hong Kong, Avatar 3’s release got delayed due to a tragic fire, letting another film dominate the box office there. Details on that delay are here: https://www.screendaily.com/news/another-world-rules-hong-kong-box-office-as-avatar-3-release-pushed-after-fire-tragedy/5211935.article.
The film’s nearly 3-hour-20-minute runtime might also turn off some casual viewers looking for quicker holiday watches. Still, experts expect Fire and Ash to leg out strong over Christmas and New Year’s, much like its predecessors, chasing big global totals.
Sources
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
https://www.screendaily.com/news/another-world-rules-hong-kong-box-office-as-avatar-3-release-pushed-after-fire-tragedy/5211935.article
