Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third movie in James Cameron’s blockbuster series, is set to hit theaters on December 19, 2025, with some early buzz projecting a strong opening weekend around $135 million to $165 million domestically, according to Boxoffice Pro[1]. But several factors could keep it from reaching those high hopes, based on recent tracking and comparisons to past films.
One big reason is tougher competition this time around. Unlike Avatar: The Way of Water in 2022, which faced little rivalry in mid-December thanks partly to COVID slowdowns, Fire and Ash will go head-to-head with movies like The Housemaid from Lionsgate, an animated biblical tale called David, and even a SpongeBob flick. Todd M. Thatcher’s analysis points out this crowded field could split audiences and limit screens[3]. Boxoffice Pro notes the entire top ten films that weekend in 2024 only made about $140 million combined, with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 at $60 million and Mufasa: The Lion King at $35 million[1].
Projections are already cooling off from the most optimistic ones. While Boxoffice Pro sticks to $135 million to $165 million, other trackers see lower numbers. Box Office Theory forecasts $95 million to $115 million[4], and Thatcher predicts just $108 million, saying it might barely top $100 million before relying on holiday legs[3]. Even Koimoi pegs it at $110 million to $130 million, below Way of Water’s $134 million debut[2].
The shorter gap between sequels plays a role too. Fans waited 13 years for Way of Water after the 2009 original, building massive hype that led to its $2.3 billion global haul despite the $134 million start. Fire and Ash comes only three years later, so excitement might not feel as fresh. Thatcher highlights this, noting forecasts make sense given the quicker turnaround[3]. Koimoi adds the pressure of a nearly $400 million budget means it needs to follow the billion-dollar path, but opening chatter suggests it may not burst out as big[2].
Avatar films thrive on long runs rather than huge openings, with the original dropping just 1.8 percent to Christmas after its $77 million start, and Way of Water holding strong through holidays despite a 52.8 percent dip[1]. Fire and Ash, at nearly 3 hours and 20 minutes, could follow suit with premium large format screens into January[1][3]. Still, if the opening falls short of top projections, theaters might see less of that extended payoff right away.
Sources
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
