Is Avatar Fire and Ash Losing Momentum on Opening Weekend
Avatar Fire and Ash, the third movie in James Camerons epic sci-fi series, is set to hit theaters on December 19th. Fans have been waiting for this sequel after the huge success of the original Avatar in 2009 and Avatar The Way of Water in 2022. But early predictions show it might not start as strong as people hoped, raising questions about losing momentum right out of the gate.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
The first Avatar opened with 77 million dollars domestically back in 2009. It was seen as a big risk at the time, but it kept earning through word of mouth and re-releases to reach 785 million in the US and 2.9 billion worldwide.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/ The Way of Water did better on opening day with 134 million, even though it faced some pandemic slowdowns and had no real competition. It ended up with 688 million domestic and 2.3 billion global.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
Now Fire and Ash faces a tougher road. Its nearly 3 hours and 20 minutes long, which might turn off some viewers. Experts predict an opening weekend of just 108 million dollars, lower than The Way of Water.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/ Other forecasts put it around 90 million or more before release, but still not matching the hype buildup.https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/ The gap between sequels is shorter this time, only three years since Way of Water compared to 13 years for the first follow-up. That means less time for excitement to build.
Competition is fiercer too. Unlike Way of Water, which had the holiday slot to itself partly due to COVID delays, Fire and Ash goes up against an animated movie about David, a thriller called The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob film. These options give families and other crowds reasons to skip it.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/ Still, some think it will clear 100 million and then rely on holiday legs to climb higher, just like its predecessors.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
The year 2025 needs big holiday hits to meet box office goals around 9 billion, so Fire and Ash carries extra pressure as a tentpole release.https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/ Early tracking suggests softer buzz, but the Pandora world has proven it can draw crowds over time.
Sources
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
