Avatar: Fire and Ash Enters Its Second Weekend with Low Momentum
Avatar: Fire and Ash, the latest James Cameron epic, opened on December 19 to much fanfare but has struggled to build steam as it hits its second weekend. Early forecasts pegged the opening at 135 to 165 million dollars domestically, yet some analysts like Todd Thatcher predicted a more modest 108 million dollars start, citing tougher competition from films like David, The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob moviehttps://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/. Unlike the first Avatar’s legendary legs from a 77 million dollar debut to 785 million dollars total or The Way of Water’s holiday hold from 134 million dollars to 688 million dollars stateside, Fire and Ash faces a crowded field with no COVID-era breakhttps://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/.
The film’s nearly three hour and twenty minute runtime aims for immersive Pandora action, but word of mouth has not ignited repeat viewings. To help 2025’s slumping box office match 2024’s 8.57 billion dollarswhen the year sits at 7.9 billion dollars so far, Fire and Ash needs 260 to 300 million dollars by December 31https://thatparkplace.com/the-2025-domestic-box-office-is-a-huge-disappointment-why-its-unlikely-to-match-an-awful-2024/. Mid-tier holiday releases must add 120 to 150 million dollars too, but if Avatar falters, the year ends weaker. Worldwide, the franchise boasts massive hauls like the original’s 2.9 billion dollars and Water’s 2.3 billion dollars, yet Fire and Ash risks underperforming without that top-tier launchhttps://thatparkplace.com/the-2025-domestic-box-office-is-a-huge-disappointment-why-its-unlikely-to-match-an-awful-2024/https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/.
Ticket sales show drop-offs steeper than predecessors, with daily averages needing to hit 30 million dollars across all films for a fighting chance. Zootopia 2 and Wicked: For Good carry some load, but Avatar anchors the push. Low momentum signals caution for studios eyeing sequels in a market where only seven films ever topped 2 billion dollars globally, including prior Avatarshttps://www.aol.com/articles/only-7-films-gross-more-194441052.html.
Sources
https://thatparkplace.com/the-2025-domestic-box-office-is-a-huge-disappointment-why-its-unlikely-to-match-an-awful-2024/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://www.aol.com/articles/only-7-films-gross-more-194441052.html
