Avatar: Fire and Ash – Is the Third Installment Underperforming?
James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash is set to hit theaters on December 19, 2025, and early tracking data suggests the film may not match the box office performance of its predecessor. While the franchise has a proven track record of massive financial success, there are growing questions about whether this third installment will meet the extraordinarily high expectations set by previous films.
The Numbers Tell a Story
Avatar: The Way of Water, released in 2022, became a global phenomenon with $2.3 billion in worldwide box office revenue. The original Avatar from 2009 remains the highest-grossing film of all time with $2.9 billion. These are staggering numbers that have created immense pressure on Cameron to deliver another blockbuster. However, current tracking suggests Avatar: Fire and Ash may open slightly lower than The Way of Water at the domestic box office, signaling potential concerns about audience appetite for another sequel.
Despite this tracking data, the film is still expected to make substantial money. The Avatar franchise has demonstrated remarkable staying power, and even a “lower” opening for this film would likely still result in hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue. The question is not whether the film will be profitable, but whether it will achieve the record-breaking numbers that have become standard for this series.
Streaming Performance and Early Buzz
One bright spot for the film has been its performance on Disney+. A special preview called Avatar: Fire and Ash – A Special Look was released on the streaming platform and has been charting in the top 10 in several international markets. In Hong Kong, the preview holds the number 3 spot, while it ranks at number 5 in Hungary and South Korea. In the United States, however, it sits at number 10, which is respectable but not dominant.
Early reactions from critics who have seen the film have been mixed to positive. Some reviewers praised the visual spectacle and Cameron’s willingness to take creative risks with the story. One critic noted that the film has “a better spectacle-to-story balance than previous films in the series,” though they also mentioned that some story choices are “bizarre.” Another reviewer described it as having “a middle chapter feel” but emphasized that the immersive experience makes this less of a concern. A third critic called it “the best and unexpectedly, the horniest of the three,” praising Cameron’s filmmaking while noting that fans of the previous films would be pleased.
The Pressure on Cameron
James Cameron has been working in the Avatar universe for decades. He wrote the original concept in 1995, shelved it for ten years after receiving skepticism, and then began serious development in 2005. The director has indicated that he is willing to walk away from the franchise if Fire and Ash does not perform well. In a recent statement, Cameron said “Absolutely” when asked if he would end the franchise if this film underperforms, adding that he has spent enough time in “Avatar land” and would be satisfied if this is where the series concludes.
This statement is significant because it suggests that even Cameron recognizes the mounting pressure and the possibility that audiences may be experiencing franchise fatigue. The fact that he is publicly discussing an exit strategy indicates that the studio and filmmakers are aware of the tracking concerns.
What Comes Next
Two additional sequels, Avatar 4 and Avatar 5, are already in various stages of production and are scheduled for release in 2029 and 2031 respectively. However, Cameron has made it clear that the future of these films depends entirely on how well Fire and Ash performs at the box office. Footage for Avatar 4 has already been shot, but the franchise’s continuation is not guaranteed.
The director has also hinted that the later Avatar sequels will take even bolder creative swings than Fire and Ash, suggesting that he has ambitious plans for the franchise if it continues. However, these plans will only come to fruition if audiences show up for the third installment.
The Bottom Line
Avatar: Fire and Ash is arriving in theaters during a crowded holiday season, and early tracking suggests it may not match the opening weekend numbers of The Way of Water. While the film is still expected to be a financial success and has generated some positive early reactions, the tracking data indicates that audience enthusiasm may not be at the same fever pitch as it was for previous installments. Whether this represents a temporary dip or a sign of longer-term franchise fatigue remains to be seen. The film’s performance over the next few weeks will determine not only the fate of Avatar 4 and 5, but also whether James Cameron continues his two-decade journey in the world of Pandora.
Sources
https://collider.com/avatar-fire-and-ash-special-look-disney-plus-streaming-success-december-2025/
https://screenrant.com/avatar-fire-and-ash-special-look-disney-plus-charts/
