Is Avatar: Fire and Ash Already Falling Behind Projections Worldwide?
James Cameron’s latest Avatar movie, Avatar: Fire and Ash, hit theaters on December 19, 2025, kicking off the holiday box office rush. Fans hoped it would match or beat the massive success of the earlier films, but early signs show it might be lagging behind what experts predicted. For more details on its box office outlook, check out this prediction from film analyst Todd Thatcher at https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/.
The original Avatar from 2009 changed movies forever. It opened with 77 million dollars in the US and grew to a worldwide total of 2.9 billion dollars, making it the top-grossing film ever at the time. You can see its ranking on all-time lists here from https://www.statista.com/statistics/262926/box-office-revenue-of-the-most-successful-movies-of-all-time/. The 2022 sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, started slower with 134 million dollars in its first weekend but held strong over the holidays. It ended up with 2.3 billion dollars worldwide, including a recent re-release boost. That re-release in October 2025 brought in numbers close to 10 million dollars worldwide and beat recent films like The Strangers: Chapter 2. Details on that re-release are at https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65508113/.
Fire and Ash faces a tougher road. At nearly three hours and 20 minutes long, it arrived just three years after Way of Water, not the 13-year wait for the first sequel. Experts like Todd Thatcher predicted an opening weekend of 108 million dollars in the US, hoping it would climb over the holidays like its predecessor. But competition is fiercer this time with films like the animated David, The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob movie sharing screens. Way of Water had the holiday slot mostly to itself, partly due to fewer releases during COVID.
As of now, with the film just out, full worldwide numbers are still rolling in. If it follows the prediction pattern and opens around 108 million domestically, it needs huge legs to hit 2 billion or more globally. Early buzz shows strong fan interest from the Pandora world, but shorter buildup time and more rivals could keep it from topping Way of Water’s pace. Box office trackers will watch closely over the next weeks to see if it heats up or cools off.
Sources
https://www.imdb.com/news/ni65508113/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/262926/box-office-revenue-of-the-most-successful-movies-of-all-time/
