Is Avatar 3 Opening Considered a Disappointment
Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third movie in James Camerons Pandora saga, hits theaters on December 19 with a huge budget of nearly 400 million dollars. Early buzz has people talking about its opening weekend, projected at 110 to 130 million dollars in North America over the three-day frame. For a link to more details, check this out: https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/.
Right now, no one can call the opening a disappointment because the actual numbers are not out yet. These are just forecasts from industry watchers like Deadline, and they paint a solid picture for a film that runs almost three hours and twenty minutes long. The first Avatar back in 2009 opened to 77 million dollars from 3,452 theaters, with a per-screen average of 22,313 dollars. It then legged out to 2.9 billion dollars worldwide, including re-releases that pushed domestic earnings to 785 million dollars.
The second film, Avatar: The Way of Water from 2022, did better at launch with 134 million dollars in its first weekend. That one faced less competition thanks to COVID delays and went on to 2.3 billion dollars globally, with 688 million dollars domestic after re-releases. For a prediction breakdown, see this site: https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/.
Fire and Ash projections sit a bit lower than Way of Water at around 108 to 130 million dollars. Some say this makes sense with only three years since the last movie, compared to the thirteen-year wait for the sequel. Plus, competition heats up this time with films like the animated David, The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob movie sharing screens. Still, experts expect the Avatar pattern of strong legs over holidays, not a quick drop-off like some blockbusters.
Trackers note 2025 box office needs holiday hits like this to hit big yearly goals around 9 billion dollars. Early per-release checks put Fire and Ash at a 90 million dollar checkpoint in some forecasts, but that leaves room for growth. Fans know Camerons films build over weeks, so a slightly softer start does not spell trouble yet. More forecasts here: https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/.
Sources
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
