Avatar 3, officially titled *Avatar: Fire and Ash*, does not appear to be losing momentum before its release. In fact, the film is tracking to have a very strong opening weekend at the North American box office, with projections ranging between $135 million and $165 million. This would mark the biggest opening in the franchise’s history, surpassing the $134.1 million debut of *Avatar: The Way of Water* in 2022 and more than doubling the $77 million opening of the original *Avatar* in 2009[1][2].
The anticipation for *Avatar: Fire and Ash* remains high due to the franchise’s established success and James Cameron’s reputation for delivering visually spectacular films. The story continues one year after the events of the second film, focusing on Jake and Neytiri’s family as they face new threats on Pandora, including a hostile Na’vi tribe called the Ash People. This narrative continuation, combined with the franchise’s visual appeal, keeps audience interest strong[1].
While some analysts predict the opening might be slightly lower than *The Way of Water* due to increased competition from other holiday releases like *David*, *The Housemaid*, and a new SpongeBob movie, the overall outlook remains positive. The film is expected to have a long theatrical run through the holiday season and into the new year, which should help maintain its box office performance[4].
The strong tracking numbers suggest that *Avatar: Fire and Ash* will be a major test for the 2025 box office landscape, potentially reversing the trend of lower-than-expected earnings seen in some other 2025 releases. The franchise’s consistent global appeal and the high expectations for this installment indicate that it is not losing momentum but rather building on the success of its predecessors[3].
Sources
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-projection-eyeing-a-strong-130m-debut-the-biggest-in-james-camerons-franchise/
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/
https://screenrant.com/2025-box-office-challenge-avatar-fire-and-ash/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
