Is Avatar 3 Falling Behind Studio Predictions?
Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third movie in James Cameron’s blockbuster franchise, hits theaters on December 19 with a huge budget of nearly 400 million dollars. Early buzz has everyone watching closely to see if it can match the massive success of the first two films. But recent box office predictions show it might not open as strong as studios hoped, sparking talk about whether it’s falling short of expectations.
The original Avatar from 2009 started with 77 million dollars in its opening weekend in North America. It surprised everyone by growing into a 2.9 billion dollar global hit over time, thanks to strong word of mouth and long runs in theaters. The sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water in 2022, opened bigger at 134 million dollars domestically and went on to earn 2.3 billion worldwide. Both films proved Avatar movies build success slowly, holding steady through holidays instead of dropping off fast.
For Fire and Ash, experts now predict a three-day opening between 110 million and 130 million dollars, according to reports from Deadline as shared on Koimoi. One detailed forecast puts it even lower at 108 million dollars, as noted by box office analyst Todd Thatcher on his site toddmthatcher.com. That’s below the 134 million from The Way of Water, raising eyebrows since studios likely aimed higher after the sequel’s strong start.
Why the dip in predictions? The gap between sequels plays a role. The Way of Water had 13 years of hype since the original, while Fire and Ash comes just three years later. Competition is tougher too, with films like the animated David, The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob movie sharing the holiday spotlight. Back in 2022, COVID kept rivals away, giving Water more room. Still, at over three hours long, Fire and Ash banks on the same fan loyalty that carried its predecessors to billions.
Tracking sites like boxofficetheory.com have watched these numbers shift downward in recent weeks, from higher pre-release hopes to the current range around 90 to 130 million. This suggests studios’ internal targets for a sequel-beating launch may not pan out right away. Yet Cameron’s track record means the real test comes after opening weekend, as Pandora’s world often legs out to huge totals.
Sources
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
