Is Avatar 3 Failing To Attract Evening Crowds?
Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third movie in James Cameron’s blockbuster franchise, hits theaters on December 19. Fans wonder if it is struggling to draw crowds, especially for evening shows, as early buzz points to a softer opening than past entries. Check out the latest projections from Koimoi, which peg the North America opening weekend at $110 million to $130 million for the three-day frame.
This range sounds solid at first glance, but it falls short of Avatar: The Way of Water’s $134 million debut back in 2022. That sequel went on to earn $2.3 billion worldwide despite its okay start, thanks to strong legs over the holidays. The original Avatar opened even smaller at $77 million in 2009 from 3,452 theaters, with a per-screen average of $22,313, before exploding to $2.9 billion globally. Fire and Ash looks set to beat the first film’s launch but trails the second, raising questions about evening turnout when families pack matinees and adults fill night slots.
Industry whispers suggest evening crowds might be thinning due to the quick three-year gap since Way of Water, compared to the 13-year wait that built huge hype. For details on how forecasts stack up, see Todd M. Thatcher’s prediction, which calls for $108 million opening. Competition plays a role too, with films like the animated David, The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob movie vying for screens, unlike Way of Water’s clearer path amid COVID slowdowns.
Avatar movies thrive on long runs, not just opening blasts. Fire and Ash carries a $400 million budget, so it needs steady evening pulls through Christmas and New Year to match its predecessors’ billion-dollar hauls. Early tracking from Box Office Theory hints at holiday potential, but softer pre-release interest could mean fewer prime-time seats sold if buzz does not heat up fast.
Sources:
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
