The buzz around Avatar 3, officially titled “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” appears to be somewhat lower than expected compared to previous films in the franchise. Industry projections estimate its domestic opening weekend to be in the range of $100 million to $130 million, with a midpoint around $110 million. This is notably less than the $134 million opening of its predecessor, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which itself fell short of earlier tracking estimates that predicted $150 million to $175 million[1][2].
Several factors contribute to this tempered anticipation. Unlike the 13-year gap between the original Avatar and its first sequel, which built significant anticipation, the gap between the second and third films is only three years. This shorter interval may have lessened the buildup of excitement. Additionally, “Fire and Ash” faces more competition at the box office, including releases like the animated film “David,” the female-led “The Housemaid,” and a SpongeBob movie. In contrast, “The Way of Water” benefited from a relatively quiet release window partly due to COVID-related delays in other productions[2].
Despite the lower opening weekend expectations, analysts believe “Avatar: Fire and Ash” will still have a strong run over the holiday season and into the new year. The previous films in the franchise have demonstrated impressive staying power, with “The Way of Water” eventually earning $688 million domestically and $2.34 billion worldwide, and the original Avatar holding the record for the highest-grossing film globally with $2.92 billion[1].
Sources
https://www.topfilmmagazine.com/movies-tv/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-projection-2025
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
