Is Avatar 3 Box Office Already Behind Forecasts?
Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third movie in James Camerons Pandora saga, hits theaters on December 19. Early buzz has people wondering if its box office start will match the hype from the first two films, both of which smashed records.
The original Avatar from 2009 opened to 77 million dollars in North America across 3,452 theaters. That gave it a solid per screen average of 22,313 dollars. No one expected it then, but it went on to earn 2.9 billion dollars worldwide, including re-releases that pushed its domestic total to 785 million dollars. It won three Oscars too. For full details, check this breakdown from Koimoi at https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/.
Avatar: The Way of Water in 2022 did even better right out of the gate with 134 million dollars in its opening weekend. It faced little competition thanks to COVID delays in other releases. The film held strong through the holidays and ended with 2.3 billion dollars globally and 688 million dollars domestic after re-releases. It snagged another Oscar for Cameron. See the comparison here from Koimoi at https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/.
Now for Fire and Ash, forecasts put its three day opening between 110 million and 130 million dollars in North America, according to Deadline reports cited by Koimoi. One prediction pegs it at 108 million dollars. Thats a step down from Way of Waters 134 million dollar debut. Reasons include a shorter three year wait since the last film versus 13 years for the first sequel. Plus, this time it faces rivals like the animated David, The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob movie. The film clocks in at nearly three hours and 20 minutes with a budget close to 400 million dollars, so it needs strong legs to pay off. Read Todd Thatchers take at https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/.
Avatar movies shine with long runs, not just big openings. The first one legged out from a modest start to history making totals. Way of Water followed that path too. Fire and Ash could do the same over the holidays if word of mouth spreads. Box Office Theory notes 2025 needs holiday hits like this to hit yearly goals around nine billion dollars. Their tracking is here: https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/.
Sources
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
