Yes. Early tracking and box-office forecasts suggest Avatar: Fire and Ash is opening with noticeably less initial interest than the previous two Avatar films, indicating the fastest measured drop in franchise opening momentum so far.[1][2]
Context and supporting details
– Projected opening ranges for Fire and Ash across industry trackers are in the roughly low three-figure millions for the three-day weekend, with common estimates around $108 million to $130 million, which is below The Way of Water’s opening and below expectations set by the franchise’s earlier runs[1][2].[1][2]
– By comparison, Avatar (2009) launched with a domestic opening near $77 million and later grew massively through long legs and re-releases, while The Way of Water (2022) opened stronger—about $134 million domestically in its first weekend—before settling into steady holiday legs and a large worldwide total[1][2].[1][2]
– Analysts and trackers note reasons that help explain a weaker early spike for Fire and Ash: shorter gap since the prior sequel (three years versus more lengthy anticipation for earlier entries), stiffer release-week competition from other holiday titles, and softer pre-release tracking than the sequel did in 2022[2].[2]
– Forecast writeups emphasize that a softer opening does not guarantee a lower lifetime gross; the Avatar films historically earn through sustained box-office legs rather than only front-loaded weekends, so holiday staying power could still push totals higher even after a slower start[1][2].[1][2]
Limitations and what this does and does not prove
– The claim that Fire and Ash is “experiencing the fastest interest drop in franchise history” rests on early tracking and opening-weekend comparisons; those are valid short-term measures of interest but not definitive measures of final audience demand or box-office outcome[2].[2]
– Box-office trajectories can change quickly during holiday runs; The Way of Water itself underperformed initial expectations on opening weekend but achieved large overall grosses through extended legs and re-releases, so a smaller opening for Fire and Ash does not by itself prove franchise decline[1][2].[1][2]
Sources
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
