Avatar: Fire and Ash Expected to Open Lower Than Avatar: The Way of Water
Avatar: Fire and Ash is set to arrive in theaters on December 19, 2025, and early box office projections suggest it will have a smaller opening weekend than its predecessor, Avatar: The Way of Water. While the third installment in James Cameron’s sci-fi franchise is still expected to perform strongly, the numbers tell an interesting story about how the series has evolved and what audiences can expect this holiday season.
The opening weekend projections for Avatar: Fire and Ash range from around 95 million to 165 million dollars, depending on which industry analysts you consult. The most commonly cited range falls between 110 million and 140 million dollars for the three-day opening frame. This is notably lower than Avatar: The Way of Water, which opened with 134.1 million dollars back in 2022. The first Avatar film, released in 2009, opened with just 77 million dollars, so Fire and Ash is still expected to significantly outperform the original’s debut.
Several factors explain why Fire and Ash is tracking lower than The Way of Water. The most obvious reason is the time gap between releases. When The Way of Water arrived in 2022, it had been 13 years since the first Avatar film. Audiences had been waiting over a decade for the sequel, creating enormous pent-up demand. Fire and Ash, by contrast, is arriving just three years after The Way of Water, so there hasn’t been as much anticipation building up. Additionally, the competitive landscape is different this year. The Way of Water faced minimal competition during its mid-December release window, partly due to COVID-related production delays that left the schedule sparse. This year, Avatar: Fire and Ash will compete with other releases including The Housemaid, David, and a SpongeBob film, which could split the audience.
Despite the lower opening weekend projection, industry experts emphasize that this doesn’t necessarily indicate weakness for the film. Avatar movies have historically shown strong staying power throughout the holiday season and beyond. The Way of Water, for instance, dropped only 52.8 percent from its opening weekend to the following weekend, which is more typical for major releases. The original Avatar actually held practically steady between its debut and Christmas the following weekend, dropping just 1.8 percent. This pattern suggests that Fire and Ash will likely settle into a long, steady run rather than experiencing a sharp decline after opening weekend.
The box office landscape of 2025 also provides important context. This year has been challenging for big-budget films overall, with several major releases underperforming expectations. However, some films like the live-action Lilo and Stitch and the animated Ne Zha 2 have managed to cross the one billion dollar mark globally. Avatar: Fire and Ash arrives as a major test for whether the franchise can maintain its box office dominance despite the broader industry challenges. The film’s performance will help determine whether 2025’s lower results for some movies reflect specific issues with those films or broader trends in cinema-going habits.
Industry analysts note that even with a lower opening weekend than The Way of Water, Avatar: Fire and Ash is still positioned to be the biggest Christmas corridor release since The Way of Water itself. The predicted opening range of 135 to 165 million dollars from some forecasters would represent approximately the same total as the entire top ten at the box office during the equivalent weekend in 2024, when Sonic the Hedgehog 3 opened with 60.1 million dollars and Mufasa: The Lion King opened with 35.4 million dollars.
The Avatar franchise has proven its resilience and audience appeal over multiple releases. The original Avatar became the highest-grossing film of all time with 2.9 billion dollars globally. The Way of Water, despite its lower opening weekend than some expected, went on to earn 2.3 billion dollars worldwide and became the third highest-grossing film ever made. If Fire and Ash follows a similar pattern of strong legs and sustained audience interest, the lower opening weekend may prove to be less significant than the total box office run.
One analyst predicted an opening weekend of 108 million dollars, noting that while Fire and Ash will likely exceed 100 million dollars, it will probably not exceed that threshold by a large margin. However, this same analyst emphasized that the film should enjoy a long and prosperous road ahead over the holidays and into the new year, following the pattern established by previous Avatar releases.
The nearly three hour and twenty minute runtime of Avatar: Fire and Ash is also worth considering. Longer films can sometimes limit the number of showtimes theaters can offer, which could impact opening weekend numbers. However, the Avatar franchise has demonstrated that audiences are willing to commit to extended viewing experiences for these films.
Sources
https://screenrant.com/2025-box-office-challenge-avatar-fire-and-ash/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/