Avatar 3, officially titled “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” is projected to open domestically with around $110 million, which is notably lower than the $134 million debut of its predecessor, “Avatar: The Way of Water.” This suggests that the third installment may not perform as strongly at the box office as the previous films in the franchise[1][2].
Several factors contribute to this outlook. The original “Avatar” film, released in 2009, had a modest $77 million opening but went on to become the highest-grossing film of all time, earning $785 million domestically and $2.9 billion worldwide. Its sequel, “The Way of Water,” opened to $134 million domestically and grossed $688 million in the U.S. and Canada, with a global total of $2.34 billion[1][2].
“Fire and Ash” faces a more competitive release window compared to “The Way of Water,” which had less competition partly due to COVID-19 related delays in other film releases. This time, it competes with several other films, including an animated biblical tale, a female-centric drama, and a SpongeBob movie, which could dilute its audience[2].
The shorter gap between the second and third films—only three years compared to the 13-year wait between the first and second—may also reduce the buildup of anticipation. Despite these challenges, “Fire and Ash” is still expected to have a strong opening and a solid run over the holiday season, but it is unlikely to surpass the box office performance of its predecessors[1][2].
Sources
https://www.topfilmmagazine.com/movies-tv/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-projection-2025
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
