Avatar 3 Box Office Drop on Sunday Explained
Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third movie in James Cameron’s popular series, opened in theaters on Friday with big expectations. Fans hoped it would match the huge success of the earlier films, like Avatar: The Way of Water, which made $445 million around the world in its first weekend back in 2022. But early numbers show a drop, especially on Sunday, and people want to know why. Let’s break it down in simple terms.
The movie aimed for a strong global start. Reports said it could hit $380 million worldwide by Sunday night, which would make it the second biggest opening of 2025, right behind Zootopia 2’s $560 million. That’s still a lot of money. For details, check this report from worldofreel.com. In the US, though, things looked weaker. Presales were running 30 percent behind The Way of Water, and projections dropped to $100 million for the domestic opening, down from $134 million the last time.
By Saturday morning, the news got even softer. Deadline shared that the three-day US opening might only reach $85 million to $90 million. That’s tens of millions less than expected and way below the previous Avatar film. You can read more on that at screenrant.com. It did hit number one at the box office right away, but the Sunday drop made headlines.
So what caused the Sunday slowdown? First, mixed reviews came out just before the release. Unlike the first two Avatars, which had strong word of mouth that kept people coming back over the holidays, this one does not seem to have that pull. The earlier movies had very small drops week to week, especially around Christmas. Disney hopes for the same here, but early buzz is not as hot.
Second, there might be Avatar fatigue. After two massive hits, some viewers could be tired of Pandora and the blue Na’vi people. The budget is over $400 million, not counting marketing, so the film needs more than $1 billion to break even. James Cameron has said the series future depends on big earnings.
Competition plays a role too. Other movies like Zootopia 2 grabbed the top spot earlier this year with a giant opening. Families and kids might have already seen that instead of waiting for another Avatar.
Domestic ticket sales started slow, with presales lagging. This means fewer people bought tickets ahead of time, leading to a bigger drop by Sunday when the weekend crowd thins out. Global numbers hold up better, but the US market, which drives a lot of profit, is softer.
James Cameron has a track record of surprises. He made three of the top four highest-grossing movies ever. If anyone can turn this around with long legs over the holidays, it’s him.
Sources
https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2025/12/17/box-office-avatar-fire-and-ash-eyes-380m-global-opening
https://screenrant.com/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-opening-weekend-record-domestic-chart-report/
