Early forecasts for the opening weekend of Avatar: Fire and Ash suggest a strong box office performance rather than a weak one. Industry projections estimate that the film will earn between $135 million and $165 million domestically during its debut weekend. This range would mark the biggest opening in the Avatar franchise, surpassing the original Avatar’s $77 million and the sequel Avatar: The Way of Water’s $134.1 million openings in North America. The film is set to release on December 19, 2025, and is expected to benefit from the holiday season and the franchise’s established popularity[1][2].
Some analysts, however, offer a more conservative estimate. One prediction places the opening weekend closer to $108 million, suggesting that while the film will surpass $100 million, it might not reach the heights of its immediate predecessor. This forecast considers factors such as increased competition from other releases like David, The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob movie, which could divide audience attention. Additionally, the shorter gap between the second and third Avatar films compared to the long wait before the first sequel might affect anticipation levels[4].
Despite these differences, the overall outlook remains positive. The Avatar series has a strong track record, with the first film still holding the record for the highest-grossing movie worldwide and the second installment performing well despite a challenging market. The third film’s performance will also be a key indicator of the broader box office environment in 2025, which has seen mixed results for other major releases. If Avatar: Fire and Ash meets or exceeds expectations, it could signal a robust end to the year for cinemas[3].
Sources
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-projection-eyeing-a-strong-130m-debut-the-biggest-in-james-camerons-franchise/
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/
https://screenrant.com/2025-box-office-challenge-avatar-fire-and-ash/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
