Is Avatar 4 a Setup Movie for Avatar 5?

Yes — evidence from James Cameron and studio reporting indicates Avatar 4 is being positioned partly as a setup for Avatar 5, while also intended to function as its own story. [1][2]

Why people say Avatar 4 looks like a setup
– James Cameron has described the sequels as both standalone stories and parts of a larger meta-narrative spanning Avatar: The Way of Water through Avatar 5, which implies later films will build on threads introduced earlier[1].
– Trade and fan reporting about Avatar 4 notes the introduction of new Na’vi clans and environments, which can expand the world and create new plotlines that naturally lead into a final installment[2].
– The production plan for the franchise — filmed and scheduled as a multi-film saga — makes it likely that narrative beats and mysteries in one movie will be intended to pay off in another simply because of long-term story planning[1].

How a setup film can still be a self-contained movie
– Filmmakers often write individual sequels to resolve local conflicts while planting seeds for future installments; Cameron has said each sequel will contain a fully encapsulated narrative even while contributing to a larger arc[1].
– That means Avatar 4 can resolve its main emotional and action beats for the characters shown on screen, yet leave open larger questions or new antagonists that Avatar 5 will address[1][2].

Signs to look for in Avatar 4 that would confirm setup intent
– New factions, locations, or character origins that are introduced but not fully explained[2].
– Teased mysteries about Pandora’s deeper history, technology, or cosmic stakes that are referenced but not resolved[1].
– Narrative cliffhangers or large-scale shifts in the status quo at the film’s end that point toward a subsequent confrontation.

Practical reasons studios and creators set up later films
– Long-form payoff increases audience investment across multiple releases and can boost box office and subscription value for the studio’s broader plans[1].
– With expensive worldbuilding like Pandora, it is more efficient to spread lore and consequences across several films rather than cram everything into one.

Uncertainties and limits
– Plans can change: director comments and reporting reflect intent but are not guarantees of final structure, especially if box office or studio strategy forces rewrites or cancellations[1].
– Public information about Avatar 4 remains limited and includes speculation from trade coverage; until the film is released, some claims about setup function will be interpretive[2].

Sources
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qj9sieue8Y
https://movieweb.com/avatar-4-everything-we-know/