Avatar: Fire and Ash showed a strong opening weekend but fell short of some early projections, with industry estimates placing its global opening around $380 million while other trackers predicted a lower domestic start near $92 million to $100 million, a softer performance than The Way of Water’s debut[2][3].
Context and what happened
– Early trade estimates from Deadline and reporting aggregated by World of Reel projected a roughly $380 million global opening for Avatar: Fire and Ash through Sunday evening, based on Friday and Saturday receipts and weekend pacing[2].
– Some box office forecasters offered significantly lower numbers: BoxOfficeReport predicted an opening weekend near $92.0 million domestically for the period December 19–21, 2025[3].
– Commentary around these figures contrasted the new film’s pace with Avatar: The Way of Water, which opened to about $445 million globally and benefited from stronger presales and word of mouth, suggesting Fire and Ash was tracking below its predecessor on key metrics like domestic presales[2].
– Indian box office trackers showed strong Friday and Saturday collections in India but reported a dramatic drop in the Day 3 figure in their early live estimate, illustrating how regional patterns can diverge and how provisional live tallies can fluctuate[1].
Why Sunday performance matters
– Sunday box office totals are used to gauge weekend legs and audience word of mouth: a high Sunday relative to Saturday signals strong family and repeat viewership, while a sharp Sunday drop can indicate weaker word of mouth or frontloaded attendance from fan screenings. Industry estimates noted that Fire and Ash had weaker presales and mixed reviews, which can blunt Sunday growth compared with films that build momentum through positive audience response[2][3].
– Comparisons with prior Avatar releases are common because the franchise’s earlier films demonstrated long theatrical legs; analysts watch Sunday behavior closely to judge whether Fire and Ash will follow that pattern or fall into a quicker decay curve[2].
Factors likely influencing the Sunday change
– Reviews and word of mouth: mixed critical response and audience reaction reported shortly after release were cited by analysts as a risk to sustained box office strength[2].
– Presales and frontloading: domestic presales were reported to be pacing behind The Way of Water, which can translate into a heavier Friday and Saturday followed by a weaker Sunday if non-fan audiences do not arrive in expected numbers[2][3].
– Competition and release timing: other releases in the same weekend and regional market differences (for example, strong early India totals but an anomalous Day 3 figure in a live tracker) can create uneven weekend shapes across territories[1][3].
– High production and marketing costs: with a very large production budget reported for Fire and Ash, industry commentary emphasized the need for large global returns, which raises sensitivity to any sign of softening after opening weekend[2].
What to watch next
– Final studio-released weekend totals and Monday-to-Tuesday weekday drop will clarify whether Sunday represented a one-off dip or the start of a steeper week-over-week decline.
– Regional breakdowns (North America versus key overseas markets such as China and India) will indicate where the film is holding and where it is underperforming relative to projections.
– Ongoing audience scores and social-media reaction across Sunday and Monday will be useful to assess potential box office legs beyond opening weekend.
Sources
https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2025/12/17/box-office-avatar-fire-and-ash-eyes-380m-global-opening
http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20251218.html
https://www.sacnilk.com/quicknews/avatar_fire_and_ash_2025_Box_Office_Collection_Day_3
