Smaller films might pull crowds away from Avatar: Fire and Ash because they offer fresh choices during a busy holiday season when moviegoers want variety over another long epic. James Cameron’s third Avatar movie, set for December 19, 2025, runs nearly three hours and 20 minutes, which can feel like a big commitment right before Christmas.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
Box office experts predict Avatar 3’s opening weekend anywhere from 95 million to 165 million dollars domestically. That’s lower than the 134 million from Avatar: The Way of Water in 2022, partly because that sequel had less competition after years of hype.https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/ This time, rivals are stepping up on the same weekend. Lionsgate’s The Housemaid, a thriller about a housemaid with a dark side, tracks for 25 to 35 million dollars. Families have options like an animated biblical story called David and a SpongeBob movie, which could draw kids and parents looking for lighter fun.https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
These smaller releases give viewers quicker, easier watches without the premium large-format screens Avatar craves. In 2024, the top films that weekend, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 at 60 million and Mufasa: The Lion King at 35 million, together made about 95 million, showing how mid-sized hits can split the audience.https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/ Even overseas, local smaller films like Hong Kong’s Another World have topped charts, delaying Avatar 3’s release there after a tragedy and proving homegrown stories can dominate.https://www.screendaily.com/news/another-world-rules-hong-kong-box-office-as-avatar-3-release-pushed-after-fire-tragedy/5211935.article
Avatar 3 banks on word of mouth and holiday legs to build over weeks, much like the first film’s slow start to huge totals. But with three years since the last one, not 13, excitement might not match before, leaving room for these alternatives to grab tickets from casual fans.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/box-office-avatar-fire-and-ash-can-open-well-below-star-wars-avengers Thrillers and animations often appeal to groups tired of sci-fi sequels, especially when theaters push them as counterprogramming.
Sources
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/box-office-avatar-fire-and-ash-can-open-well-below-star-wars-avengers
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soul
