Why Box Office Models Suggest a Rapid Decline
Movie theaters are seeing fewer people buying tickets, and the numbers point to a quick drop-off in the coming months. Experts who track box office sales use models based on past weekends, attendance trends, and theater earnings to predict what’s next. These models show a sharp decline because big hits are rare, people prefer streaming at home, and even strong weekends can’t hide the bigger problems.
Take Halloween weekend in late October 2025. Ticket sales from October 31 to November 2 hit just $49 million, the lowest of the year and the worst Halloween box office in over 30 years, not counting the COVID shutdown in 2020.https://newuniversity.org/2025/11/20/hollywood-faced-a-box-office-bloodbath-this-halloween/ No major studios like Disney or Warner Bros. released tentpole films, those high-budget blockbusters that draw crowds. Instead, theaters had old movies hanging on and small new ones. Box office analyst Jeff Bock said the few releases, like Black Phone 2, weren’t enough to pull people in.https://newuniversity.org/2025/11/20/hollywood-faced-a-box-office-bloodbath-this-halloween/
This isn’t just one bad weekend. The whole summer of 2025 was the least attended since 1981, even with more people living in the U.S. now. October brought in only $445 million, half of what it did pre-COVID.https://www.outkick.com/analysis/hollywood-faces-major-box-office-crisis-drama-comedy-films-fail-find-audiences Theater chains feel the pain. AMC lost $298 million in a quarter, and Cinemark’s earnings fell from $189 million to $50.5 million.https://newuniversity.org/2025/11/20/hollywood-faced-a-box-office-bloodbath-this-halloween/ Models predict this strain will worsen without changes.
Streaming is a big reason. Services like Netflix skip theaters for direct home releases, leaving $1.5 billion on the table in 2025, according to one analysis. Straight-to-streaming films could have earned big at the box office but didn’t get the chance.https://theankler.com/p/entertainment-strategy-guy-box-office-bad-streaming-films-win-win?action=share Studios shortened the wait time for movies to hit streaming, so many skip theaters and wait a few weeks. COVID lockdowns trained people to stay home, and now habits stick.https://www.outkick.com/analysis/hollywood-faces-major-box-office-crisis-drama-comedy-films-fail-find-audiences
Even recent hits show the drop. Films like Now You See Me Now You Don’t fell 55-60% in their second weekend, from $27 million to $9.1 million. The Running Man remake bombed despite Glen Powell’s star power.https://rogersmovienation.com/2025/11/22/box-office-wicked-blows-up-the-box-office-for-good-but-will-records-fall/ Search data backs this up. Interest in ticket sales peaked in summer and fall but dropped to 11 in November, a post-holiday lull that models say will deepen.https://www.accio.com/business/box-office-movie-sales-trend
Outlook reports agree. Attendance might grow just 4% in 2025, slower than hoped, as recovery stalls.https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3481665 Dramas and comedies flop too, with 25 recent ones failing to draw crowds. Hollywood’s shift to narrow topics over broad appeal adds to the slide.https://www.outkick.com/analysis/hollywood-faces-major-box-office-crisis-drama-comedy-films-fail-find-audiences Models factor in all this—weak lineups, streaming pull, and habit changes—to forecast a rapid decline unless theaters adapt fast.
Sources
https://newuniversity.org/2025/11/20/hollywood-faced-a-box-office-bloodbath-this-halloween/
https://www.outkick.com/analysis/hollywood-faces-major-box-office-crisis-drama-comedy-films-fail-find-audiences
https://www.accio.com/business/box-office-movie-sale
