Avatar: Fire and Ash has lower box office projections than its predecessors, Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water, mainly due to shorter buildup time and tougher competition. Experts predict it will open with around $95 million to $108 million domestically, compared to Way of Water’s $134 million debut in 2022.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/
The original Avatar from 2009 built huge excitement over 13 years since James Cameron first talked about sequels. It started with a $77 million opening but grew to $785 million in the US and $2.9 billion worldwide thanks to word of mouth and re-releases.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/ Way of Water came just three years later, in 2022, after a long pandemic delay that left theaters empty. It had almost no rivals during its mid-December release, helping it earn $688 million domestically and $2.3 billion globally.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
Fire and Ash hits theaters on December 19, only three years after Way of Water. That quick gap means less fresh hype. Plus, the movie runs nearly three hours and 20 minutes, which might turn off some viewers looking for shorter holiday options.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/ Competition packs the schedule too. Films like the animated biblical story David, The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob movie open around the same time, splitting audiences. Way of Water faced little opposition partly because of COVID shortages.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
Trackers still see potential. One forecast puts the opening at $95 million to $115 million over the weekend.https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/ Another expects just over $100 million, with strong legs through holidays if reviews and visuals deliver.https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/ An earlier estimate had it at $90 million or more before final pre-release data.https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
Sources
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
