Avatar 3 weekend projections have been drifting lower because of a mix of competition, franchise timing, and cautious tracking that together reduce early estimates.
Studios and forecasters are lowering some opening estimates because several competing releases share the December window, which spreads audience attention and ticket spend across titles rather than funneling it all to the new Avatar film[2][3]. Box office trackers note that unlike The Way of Water, this release does not have an open field in mid-December, and challengers such as David, The Housemaid, and other holiday releases create a busier marketplace[3].
Some trackers and forecasting sites have updated their ranges downward as pre-release polling, advance-sales patterns, and per-theater indications have come in more modestly than the strongest early hopes; for example, a few tracking updates have placed the opening in the roughly $95M–$115M band or similar ranges lower than The Way of Water’s $134M debut[4][1].
Analysts also point to calendar and franchise effects: the second Avatar sequel arrived only three years after the previous one, so the long, built-up anticipation that boosted earlier huge openings is weaker now, which can temper initial turnout and therefore lower weekend projections[3].
Longer runtime and theatrical behavior matter too. A very long film reduces the number of daily showtimes per screen, which caps maximum box office throughput even if demand is strong; trackers factor that constraint into forecasts and sometimes trim opening estimates as a result[3].
Finally, forecasters emphasize that Avatar films typically rely on long legs rather than a single huge opening, so some outlets prefer conservative opening-weekend estimates and expect revenue to accrete over the holidays—this conservative stance shows up as smaller weekend projections early on even if total grosses remain robust over weeks[1][2].
Sources
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-how-james-camerons-newest-chapters-projected-opening-stacks-up-against-the-debuts-of-the-previous-two-movies-in-the-franchise/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/
