Is Avatar: Fire and Ash Ticket Buying Slower Than Industry Models Predicted?
Fans of the Avatar series are buzzing about the upcoming third movie, Avatar: Fire and Ash, set for release on December 19, 2025, by Disney and 20th Century Studios. Early forecasts had modest expectations for its opening weekend ticket sales. For example, one tracking report from Box Office Theory predicted around $95 million in domestic opening weekend earnings based on initial six-week box office forecastshttps://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/. Another update from the same site even dialed it back slightly to $90 million or more at a pre-release checkpointhttps://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/.
These numbers seemed cautious compared to the franchise’s past hits. The original Avatar opened to $77 million in 2009, while Avatar: The Way of Water pulled in $134.1 million in 2022 during the same December weekend slot. Industry watchers wondered if Fire and Ash would match that hype, especially with no major competition listed beyond re-releases like The Shining’s 45th anniversary.
But recent updates show a different story. Box Office Pro’s long-range forecast now tracks the film to a stronger $135 million to $165 million domestic opening weekend rangehttps://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/. This beats the earlier predictions and even tops The Way of Water’s debut. Analysts point to solid pre-sale momentum, positioning it as the biggest Christmas release since the previous Avatar film. They expect a long run in premium large format theaters into January, helped by a holdover from the first film’s near-flat drop of just 1.8 percent to Christmas.
So, no, ticket buying for Avatar: Fire and Ash is not slower than industry models predicted. Instead, it has sped past those initial estimates, building excitement for a strong holiday box office closeout.
Sources
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
