Critics and industry watchers are showing signs of tempered expectations for Avatar 3, officially titled Avatar: Fire and Ash. Unlike the original Avatar film released in 2009, which became a massive blockbuster and set box office records, the anticipation for this latest installment is more cautious. The original film opened with $77 million domestically and eventually grossed nearly $2.9 billion worldwide, setting a high bar for its sequels. The first sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, released in 2022, had a solid but somewhat underwhelming opening frame of $134 million domestically, though it performed well over the holiday season and ended with $2.3 billion globally. This performance, while impressive, was still seen as a slight underperformance compared to the original[1].
For Avatar: Fire and Ash, the outlook is more modest. Early box office forecasts predict an opening weekend in the range of $95 million to $115 million, with some estimates centering around $108 million. This is notably lower than the opening of The Way of Water. Several factors contribute to this tempered expectation. First, the gap between the second and third films is only three years, much shorter than the 13-year wait between the original and the first sequel, which may have lessened the buildup of anticipation. Second, the competition at the box office is stiffer this time around. Avatar: Fire and Ash is releasing alongside other films such as an animated biblical tale called David, a female-led drama The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob movie, all of which provide alternatives for audiences. In contrast, The Way of Water faced less competition partly due to COVID-19-related delays in film releases[1][2].
Critics also note the film’s length, nearly three hours and 20 minutes, which could impact audience turnout and repeat viewings. While Avatar: Fire and Ash is expected to surpass $100 million in its opening weekend, the margin is not expected to be large. However, there is hope that the film will have a strong run over the holidays and into the new year, potentially boosting its overall box office take[1].
In summary, while Avatar: Fire and Ash is still expected to perform well, the critical and commercial expectations are more measured compared to the original film and even its immediate predecessor. The combination of shorter anticipation buildup, increased competition, and the film’s length are key reasons why some critics are already expecting it to underperform relative to previous Avatar movies.
Sources
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/
