Avatar 3, officially titled “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” is projected to have a domestic opening weekend in the range of $100 million to $130 million, with a midpoint estimate around $110 million. This is notably lower than the $134 million opening of its predecessor, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which itself fell short of earlier projections of $150 million to $175 million. The original “Avatar” opened with $77 million but grew to become the highest-grossing film of all time, while “The Way of Water” earned $688 million domestically and $2.34 billion worldwide. Given these figures, “Fire and Ash” is expected to open lower than “The Way of Water,” making it likely the lowest performing movie in the franchise in terms of opening weekend revenue[1][2].
Several factors contribute to this outlook. The anticipation gap between the first and second films was 13 years, which helped build massive excitement for “The Way of Water.” In contrast, “Fire and Ash” arrives only three years after the second film, which may have lessened the buildup of audience anticipation. Additionally, “Fire and Ash” faces more competition at the box office, including releases like the animated film “David,” the female-focused “The Housemaid,” and a SpongeBob movie. This contrasts with “The Way of Water,” which had a relatively clear mid-December release window partly due to COVID-related delays affecting other films[2].
Despite a potentially lower opening, “Fire and Ash” is still expected to perform strongly overall, with hopes for a solid run through the holiday season and into the new year. James Cameron’s franchise remains a dominant force in global box office history, with the first two films ranking among the highest-grossing movies ever. However, the trend suggests that the third installment will not match the record-breaking heights of its predecessors, at least in its initial box office performance[1][2].
Sources
https://www.topfilmmagazine.com/movies-tv/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-projection-2025
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
