Early forecasts for the opening weekend of *Avatar: Fire and Ash*, the third installment in James Cameron’s Avatar series, do not point to a weak opening. In fact, projections suggest a strong debut, potentially the biggest in the franchise’s history. Industry reports estimate the North American box office take to be between $135 million and $165 million during its opening weekend. This range surpasses the $134.1 million opening of *Avatar: The Way of Water* in 2022 and significantly exceeds the $77 million opening of the original *Avatar* in 2009[1][2].
The film is set to release on December 19, 2025, during a competitive holiday season. Despite this, the anticipation remains high due to the franchise’s established popularity and the film’s continuation of the story involving Jake Sully, Neytiri, and new conflicts on Pandora. The presence of other releases like *David*, *The Housemaid*, and a SpongeBob movie might create some competition, but early box office predictions still favor *Avatar: Fire and Ash* to perform well[4].
Some analysts suggest that while the opening might not dramatically exceed the previous sequel’s debut, it will likely maintain a strong box office presence over the holiday period and into the new year. This expectation is based on the franchise’s history of strong legs at the box office, meaning it sustains audience interest beyond the initial weekend. The film’s length and epic scope also contribute to the anticipation of a prolonged theatrical run[4].
In summary, early forecasts do not indicate a weak opening weekend for *Avatar: Fire and Ash*. Instead, they point to a robust debut that could set new records for the franchise domestically, reflecting continued audience enthusiasm for the series.
Sources
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/avatar-fire-and-ash-north-america-box-office-projection-eyeing-a-strong-130m-debut-the-biggest-in-james-camerons-franchise/
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-tracking-to-exceed-the-way-of-waters-134m-opening/
https://screenrant.com/2025-box-office-challenge-avatar-fire-and-ash/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
