Is Avatar 3’s Quiet Opening Weekend a Warning Sign?
Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third movie in James Cameron’s blockbuster franchise, is set to hit theaters on December 19, 2025. Early box office predictions point to a domestic opening weekend around $110 million, with some estimates as low as $95 million to $108 million. This number feels underwhelming when you stack it up against the past hits in the series. The original Avatar opened to $77 million back in 2009 but went on to make $785 million in the U.S. and nearly $3 billion worldwide thanks to strong word of mouth. Its sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water from 2022, started stronger at $134 million domestically despite missing higher pre-release targets influenced by Spider-Man: No Way Home’s massive $260 million debut the year before. That film ended up with $688 million in the U.S. and $2.3 billion globally, proving the franchise’s power to leg out over the holidays.
For more details on these projections, check out this tracking report expecting $110 million plus, or this prediction pegging it at $108 million. Analysts note Fire and Ash is tracking in the $100 million to $130 million range, but the midpoint sits below The Way of Water’s actual start. One forecast even lists a pre-release checkpoint at $90 million plus, updated to $95 million in a later report. See this early outlook and the updated version for the numbers.
So is this quieter buzz a red flag? It could signal some fatigue after 16 years since the first film, especially with the three-hour runtime and holiday competition from Christmas Day releases. The franchise has raked in over $5 billion worldwide so far, and Cameron’s track record with top-grossers like Titanic keeps expectations high. Yet dropping below the sequel’s opening might mean audiences are not rushing out on day one like before. Still, holiday legs could turn it around, just as the previous entries multiplied their openings many times over. Box office watchers see it dominating the end of 2025 anyway, following Zootopia 2’s big Thanksgiving run. For context on the Christmas battle, read this piece.
Sources
https://www.topfilmmagazine.com/movies-tv/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-projection-2025
https://toddmthatcher.com/2025/12/10/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-prediction/
https://screenrant.com/2025-movies-christmas-box-office-anaconda-reboot-tracking/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-90m-pre-release-checkpoint-plus-christmas-week-outlooks-and-early-mercy-forecasts/
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/
